Comment on: "Judge orders Seattle Times, four TV stations to give photos, videos of protests to police", Washington Post, July 24, 2020

The is a very good decision. 

I am all in favor of raising awareness of persistent discrimination against minorities and police misconduct. 

However, the same stringent standards applied against police misconduct by a very small minority (body-cams, transparent and stringent review and prosecution of police misconduct) should and must be applied vis-a-vise the "protesters", infiltrated by chaotic looters and arsonists.

The MLB movement condemn entire police departments for the terrible behavior of a few. In the same way, the legitimate protesters could be blamed for the misconduct of the few which infiltrate the protests. The police in many jurisdictions are required to wear and activate body-cams to document possible misconduct. Since we cannot require protesters, and especially the criminal elements which infiltrate them, to wear body-cams, it is only appropriate that all available evidence, including news videos (in addition to normal surveillance video) be available to prosecute the criminals giving a bad name to the legitimate protests.

Our (Seattle's) Major is largely responsible for the continued violence, burning and looting in Seattle, as she explicitly stated that "misconduct" during protests should not be prosecuted, that the infamous "summer of love" should just be allowed to deteriorate unabated. Our Police Chief and Fire Chief (both African-American) are the only ones with any consistency and common sense. 

Our City Council, favoring reduction of the police budget by 50%, is completely bonkers.

100 Reasons to Love America: An open letter to People Magazine

When I immigrated to the United States of America back in 1963, I had real reasons to “Love America”: Europe, and especially Germany where I was born, owed its very existence , evolving prosperity (in the ’60’s) and its security from the threat of Soviet takeover to America. As a young boy in bombed out and blockaded Berlin, following American soldiers through the streets (to pick up their cigarette butts to take in to Tobacco Shops for penny candy), I saw Americans as can-do, nothing is impossible, let’s fix it kind of people. Coming from bombed out Berlin to the US for the first time in 1951, thanks to my fathers posting to the German Consulate in San Francisco, seven years old, I literally felt like I had gone to heaven.

By 1963, when I finally immigrated, Germany had come a long way towards economic, social and political recovery, although in many ways it was still the “anything not explicitly allowed is ‘verboten’ “ country. And even then there were some disturbing events and trends in US social and political reality: the Vietnam War, the Civil Rights Movement, positive at the time, but worrying about what it said about America’s unresolved past, and the first signs of the extreme political polarization (under Nixons “Southern Strategy”) typical of the US today.

However, on a strictly personal level, I was still able to realize “The American Dream”, a good education, followed by good jobs, marriage to a wonderful American “girl”, and physical and financial security, even into retirement age. But I am one of the lucky ones, even in America; I’m white and middle class. There is a very large subclass, often native-born Americans, not immigrants, who had and have no chance at the American Dream.

The social, political end economic decline of America, first slowly and barely noticeable, has steadily accelerated, to the point today, with the US being at best second rate in all the international comparisons of social and economic wellbeing, that one has to, as I have, consider the United States a failed state - I submitted an opinion piece to the NYT to that effect (not accepted/not published) - http://rantingsofgrumpyoldguy.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-united-states-failed-state-united.html

With that as background, I came across the current (June 29, 2020) issue of People Magazine and their “100 Reasons to Love America”. Now, in fairness, People Magazine is a celebrity-oriented rag, and one should not expect “serious” thinking or writing from them. But even with that in mind, the list they published is just mind-bogglingly banal and self-delusional.

Just take the first six - the ones beyond that are so banal, I can’t even stomach commenting on them:

#1 Peaceful Protests

Yes, I am fully on board with most of the protests, currently for Black Lives Matter, and those back in my younger days, for Civil Rights and Anti-Vietnam War. And I get it, that sometimes fringe elements will create violence, which should not distract from the issues at hand. But, for example, here in Seattle (as in other cities) there was violence arson and looting, and to top if off, the City of Seattle has allowed the creation of, literally, a lawless zone in its midst, containing a police station, which itself in the past was created at the request of the local resident to have closer police presence to fight crime in that area,  where police are now not allowed to enter. This acquiescence to mob rule is certainly one of the many signs of a “failed state” condition which the US is descending into.

This item, as most of the others, is also a reflection of one of the central weaknesses of the American psyche, or personality: the need to feel that everything which happens here is unique, the best, the biggest, the greatest, etc. and the self-delusional refusal to look realistically at anything happening outside of the US.  Peaceful protest is happening around the world, because racial and other inequality is not unique to the US. See also the “peaceful protests” happening in Russia and other former Soviet states, protesting the autocratic suppression of any and all political opposition - protest in those environments takes real courage, and is not a “summer block party”, as Major Durkan likes to refer to the Capital Hill autonomous zone.

#2 American Optimism

I used to be an admirer of  “American Optimism”, that “can-do” spirit which so enthralled the rest of the world after World War II, personified at the national level by the Roosevelt government’s  Marshall Plan, and at the personal level by the American GI’s pitching in to make life bearable in bombed out Berlin.

But looking at Americas social and political decline over the past fifty years, that can-do approach has been replaced by a severe social and political paralysis. Socially, America is far behind all other advanced countries - we are the only first-world country without universal health care and one of the very few where college and university education is not free or at least heavily subsidized. Politically, our highly polarized two-party political system has caused virtual paralysis in dealing with urgent, social, political and economic problems, at the national, state and local levels. This dysfunctional political paralysis is largely responsible, among many other things, for the amateurish, fractured and highly politicized response to the current Covid-19 pandemic - together with the related lack of universal health care, responsible both for large segment of the population with severe untreated chronic health issues, and an inadequate, profit-driven health care infrastructure, exemplified by a severe shortage of ICU beds and lack of even rudimentary supplies of protective gear.

#3 MasterClass - actually, remote and home schooling

Here again, a “tell” on the American psyche - to highlight a private company trying to make a profit from the current pandemic, rather that the millions of dedicated parents and teachers trying to keep the education of our youngsters on track. This is like glorifying Trump University or the many private, for-profit colleges whose main goal is to cash in on the federally guaranteed (but not subsidized) high interest loans, not grants, for education.

#4 Stationary Bikes

Really ??!! Stationary bikes are something uniquely American to be proud of?

#5 Billie Eilish

OK, if one widens the scope here to “American performing popular artists”, I agree, that in general, they are a cut above the rest of the world. Personally, I don’t particularly care for Billie Eilish, but, for example, the poetic genius and performing honesty of someone like Kris Kristofferson, to me, is very rare and exceptional.

#6 Dr. Anthony Fauci

Yes, Dr. Fauci has proven to be an effective counter-balance to the irrational nonsense coming from The White House. But we also have to be honest and not succumb to blind hero-worship. Dr. Fauci did, in early January, downplay the threat of Coronavirus to the US, even though he couched that opinion in the generic cop-out of “things may change”.

We also need to remember, that Dr. Fauci allowed himself to be used to spread the blatant lies about the availability in the US of Coronavirus testing. During the infamous news conference with VP Pence, as well as in other interviews, Dr. Fauci echoed the blatant lies about the availability of testing in the US; he, of all people, was in a position to know that the early test kits from the CDC (which in typical American arrogance, it insisted on developing its own, rather that go with the proven one from the WHO) were rife with reliability problems.

Beyond #6, things really become trite and ridiculous (#7 Quarantine Cocktails - really??!!) that I don’t have the stomach to even critique these individually … except

#73 Judge Judy, could not agree more - one of my favorite shows!

The United States, a Failed State ?

The United States is showing all the symptoms of becoming a failed state. The rot of constitutional governance starts at the very top, a President who claims for himself the right to do anything he wants; Cabinet Officers at the highest level showing complete disregard for their responsibilities to the people of the United States rather than just kowtowing to only the sociopathic President. 

At the local level we see the very thin veneer of civilized behavior disintegrating, where governors and local officials are trying to present a veneer of being in control, while everyone is using the police as scapegoats for societal problems which have been baked into American society since the very founding.

Contrary to the soaring sentiments and words of the Declaration of Independence, the Framers of the Constitution, whom we have been brainwashed into treating as infallible holy-men, made a pact with the devil by legitimizing slavery. Understandable as that may have been, given the realties of the times, this original pact with the devil has never been resolved, not by the Civil War, not by the civil rights movement and legislation of the 60’s and not by anything we as a society have been able to do since then.

The mistake we as a society, and especially our politicians, are making now is that, instead of actually implementing political and social programs to finally try to mitigate this deep seated racism, and social injustice in general, we are now using the police as scapegoats for the myriad of social, economic and health problems. The police are being asked not only to enforce the laws, but have been forced into the untenable position of dealing with mental illness, drug use and petty crime on the streets, because, as a society, we are not willing to deal with these issues at a broader level.

We as a society are in the throws of a false feel-good liberalism, where governors and mayors mouth words of sympathy for victims of possible police violence and misconduct, but have not and do not do anything to effectively control the systemic economic, social and racial inequalities in their communities. Where is the equivalent outrage at the violence in our cities, where children are routinely caught in the cross-fire of warring gangs? Who, if not the police, is going to protect the residents of these neighborhoods from the violence in their midst, perpetrated not by the police, but by their own children, friends and neighbors.

By “feel-good liberalism” I mean the spouting of (possibly sincere) banal words of empathy with racial and social injustice, designed to make the speakers themselves “feel good”, without actually doing the hard work of implementing social and political programs to mitigate these issues.

The fact that our downward spiral towards a failed state is hard to recognize is explained by the “boiling frog” fable. If one takes a step back and looks at the many failed states around us, like Syria, Libya, Venezuela, it is easier to recognize, that their descend into chaotic lawlessness and even civil war show a lot of parallels to what the United States is experiencing now: despotic, lawless, sociopathic rule at the top, untreated social discontent, protests, looting and burning cities, and finally, to complete the cycle, a ruler calling for the use of more force, even threatening the use of the military, to quell and “control” the violence, as our President is doing now.

The best case scenario in the short run is that this outburst of violence too will subside and that we get back to “business as usual”. But business as usual is at best only a delaying tactic. Americans as a society seem to be allergic to true introspective self-criticism; we always have to reassure ourselves that we are the best, the greatest, the richest, without the necessary humility to admit our shortcomings and failings. Without such honest introspection, we will not solve our deep seated social problems and our descent towards a failed state, or at best a second rate nation, will continue. 

As a reality check on how far towards second rate status the Unites States has fallen, one needs only review some sobering statistics. The fact that we continually pride ourselves on having the highest GDP, a virtually meaningless statistic, should not distract from these sobering statistics.

• USA Ranking on Adult Literacy Scale: 9 (1 Sweden and 2 Norway) – OECD
• USA Ranking on Health care Quality Index: 37 (1 France and 2 Italy) – World Health Organization 2003
• USA Ranking of Student Reading Ability: 12 (1 Finland and 2 South Korea) – OECD PISA 2003
• USA Ranking of Student Problem Solving Ability: 26 (1 South Korea and 2 Finland) – OECD PISA 2003
• USA Ranking on Student Mathematics Ability:  24 (1 Hong Kong and 2 Finland) – OECD PISA 2003
• USA Ranking of Student Science Ability: 19 (1 Finland and 2 Japan) – OECD PISA 2003
• USA Ranking on Women’s Rights Scale: 17 (1 Sweden and 2 Norway) – World Economic Forum Report
• USA Position on Timeline of Gay Rights Progress:  6 (1997) (1 Sweden 1987 and 2 Norway 1993) – Vexen
• USA Ranking on Life Expectancy: 29 (1 Japan and 2 Hong Kong) – UN Human Development Report 2005
• USA Ranking on Journalistic Press Freedom Index: 32 (1 Finland, Iceland, Norway and the Netherlands tied) – Reporters without Borders 2005
• USA Ranking on Political Corruption Index: 17 (1 Iceland and 2 Finland) – Transparency International 2005
• USA Ranking on Quality of Life Survey: 13 (1 Ireland and 2 Switzerland) – The Economist Magazine …Wikipedia “Celtic Tiger” if you still have your doubts.
• USA Ranking on Environmental Sustainability Index: 45 (1 Finland and 2 Norway) – Yale University ESI 2005
• USA Ranking on Overall Currency Strength: 3 (US Dollar) (1 UK pound sterling and 2 European Union euro)- FTSE 2006….the dollar is now a liability, so many banks worldwide have planned to switch to euro
• USA Ranking on Infant Mortality Rate: 32 (1 Sweden and 2 Finland) – Save the Children Report 2006
• USA Ranking on Human Development Index (GDP, education, etc.): 10 (1 Norway and 2 Iceland) – UN Human Development Report 2005
• USA Ranking on Happiest Nations: 150 (1 Vanuatu and 2 Bhutan) -New Economics Foundation (NEF).

Reopening from COVID-19 Lockdowns

One of the very frustrating aspects of both media reporting on, and the responses by governors to this Covid-19 pandemic - forget the WH briefings, those are comic-tragedies - is the single-minded focus on testing as a gateway to reopening.

All we hear from the governors and the media is the hype about the testing, testing testing which is needed before States can begin to reverse the lockdown. However, no clear metric is given what level of testing (or even precisely what kind of testing - confirm COVID-19, or confirm anti-bodies) is considered sufficient to allow the economy to be re-opened.

I have the uncomfortable feeling, that especially the Media are focused on testing because Trump (but also the States) obviously failed in providing testing capability early on, and the Media love to keep bludgeoning Trump with this early failure. With their backward focus and hyperbolic coverage, the Media reporting and endless Governor press-conferences seems designed more to panic the public rather to inform us.

It should be obvious by now, that the testing capability and the so-called contact tracing everyone is talking about, let alone the vaccine, will not be available for months, if ever. Thus, a more reliable gating metric is needed, such as the R0 metic, the “Basic Reproductive Number”. It depends on the virus’ “latent period” (time from infection to infectiousness) and the infectious period, both of which are admittedly difficult to determine - see Emerging Infectious Diseases, CDC, pre-release, July 2020 (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article).

A different metric, R(t) or RT, the Effective Reproductive Rate, or Reproductive Rate over time, is calculated (with some sophisticated statistical methods) from the the number of new cases which appear each day (note dependence on testing). There is a very interesting Blog post by  Kevin Systrom, the co-founder of Instagram (“The Metric We Need to Manage COVID-19 - Rt: the effective reproduction number”, http://systrom.com/blog/the-metric-we-need-to-manage-covid-19/), which advocates calculating this R(t) statistic for each State as a realistic gating metric for allowing the slow and careful re-opening of each State’s economy.

I first stumbled on the use of R0 as a gating metric for slow and careful re-opening by following the German news (I’m originally from Germany). They made their decision when R0 reached 0.7, indicating that each infected person, on average, infects fewer than one other person. Since the partial opening on Monday, Apr. 20, the R0 metric has risen to 0.9, still below the magic number of 1.0.

All of these statistics, of course, suffer from a degree of uncertainty, dependent on knowledge of the infectious progression and the degree and accuracy of testing. In that connection it is worth reminding our politicians, that effective governing is policy making under uncertainty. It strikes me that the rote recital by Governors and Federal officials that “we need to follow science” is a way to avoid their responsibilities to make decisions in the face of uncertainty - even Science cannot always predict outcomes with 100% certainty, which is especially true in Social Science.

Here too, there are techniques available to make these uncertain decisions more robust - see for example “Robust Decision Making for Planning Under Deep Uncertainty” RAND Corp., 2013 - https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9701.html 

At this point it would be helpful if the media relaxed their hyper-partisan reporting and endless speculation, designed to increase the readership/viewerships in their respective camps, and concentrate on useful factual reporting, which can provide the public with realistic expectations on when we can expect the “lockdown” to be relaxed.

I have a lot of sympathy for the protest demonstrations in various State capitals to “open the economy” - these are the people who are trying to apply for unemployment benefits and waiting in line for food distribution, rather that the “talking heads” on TV, making their pronouncements about the need for continued lockdown from the comfort, safety and financial security of their homes. They need to be given realistic perspective rather than the very obscure, non-specific “testing, testing, testing”.