Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Comment on: "How to Prop Up the Euro", by Steven Rattner

See"
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/02/opinion/how-to-prop-up-the-euro.html?ref=global
for Op-Ed piece.
===================
Dear IHT Editors:
It is quite disconcerting how ignorant of the facts the NYT/IHT Op-Ed contributors sometimes are. Mr. Rattner is only the latest in a long string of so called "experts" (in fairness, Mr. Rattner is a "former Wall Street executive", so he certainly qualifies as an expert in wreaking financial havoc on the countries economy while enriching himself) go on and on about the failures of the European leaders to find a long term fix to the well known problems of the Euro. On the face of it, the comments in his Op-Ed piece are largely correct, while certainly not new.
His comparisons with the US system are the usual myopic half-truths one hears from American commentators. The fact that the federal government, for example, pays half the unemployment benefits, does NOT insulate individual states from having to implement draconian austerity measures in order to avoid bankruptcy - states like California are forced to make extremely harsh cuts to education, health care, state retirement, etc., etc., not at all unlike Greece is having to do now. And if these Ep-Ed experts, like Mr. Rattner, ever bothered to travel through Europe with open eyes and open ears, they would be amazed how much cross-national migration there is in Europe to find and fill jobs.
These misrepresentations aside, however, what is by far more concerning is that this bevy of Op-Ed writes does not bother to do even the slightest research (Google search, Wikipedia -- I suggest looking at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Stability_Mechanism) to find out of their basic thesis (European leaders are only looking at short term fixes) is actually correct. If they did do some background reading, or better yet, traveled to Europe and listen to some political discussions, they would know that there is indeed work going on, and has been for over a ear, to come of with some "structural" long term fixes. All of these, however, take time to implement, as they involve changes to the series of treaties with enable the EU and the Euro.
Such work (modifying treaties among 17 and/or 27 different countries) is not an easy task, and in todays fast moving world, is not the best way to run things. However, even with that, by comparison with what the US Congress has done (or not done) with its Super Committee to try and resolve the budget/debt crisis in the US, the European politicians, in their slow and cumbersome efforts to modify the EU and the Euro, don't look so bad by comparison.
Sincerely
Claus Gehner

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Comment on: "Leading from Behind" by Roger Cohen

see
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/01/opinion/01iht-edcohen01.html
for Roger Cohens original article.


I agree with the substance of Mr. Cohen's column - \"leading from behind\" for the US in its current state of decline, both economic and political (having just returned from two months in Europe, many people we talked with are quite unbelieving in terms of how far down the US has gone).
However, I am still very skeptical in terms of the \"success\" or \"benefits\" of the so called Arab Spring.
The elections in Tunisia has given an Islamist party (all-be-it \"moderate\") by far the largest share of the electoral vote, and it promptly sent signals that Shira law (e.g. on allowing polygamy) will be re-enabled.
In Libya a similar lead of islamist political parties is evident. And in Egypt, the poster child of the Arab Spring, the military seems poised to consolidate its power, and is allowing anti-coptic-christian violence.
In all these cases (as in Iraq and Afghanistan) the US's ignorance about other parts of the world, and their implicit assumption that when people \"protest\", it means that they want the type of democracy and society we have -- THEY DON'T, as evidenced by the rise of islamists all through the region.... Although when you get right down to it, the Republicans in many ways want to institute the christian equivalent of Shira law in the US.

Friday, October 28, 2011

Comment on: "The Path not Taken", by Paul Krugman

see
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/28/opinion/krugman-the-path-not-taken.html
for original piece by Paul Krugman.


It is fascinating that economists always know what should HAVE BEEN done, but their theories and models are useless (and individual economists contradict each other) when trying to formulate a plan of action.
And, let's face it, Mr. Krugman, for all your harping on the slowness and inadequacy of the European response, forcing banks to take a 50% write-down is a little different from giving them $700 Billion with no strings attached...
There is an interesting study out of ETH Zurich about the interconnectedness of international corporations, which reports that about 147 of the largest corporations control, directly or indirectly, a staggering 40% of the world economy. This is the \"99% versus 1%\" gone crazy on a world wide scale...
http://www.welt.de/print/die_welt/wirtschaft/article13681201/Die-globale-Macht-der-Grosskonzerne.html

Thursday, October 27, 2011

Comment on: "A Stunning Fall From Grace for a Star Executive"

see
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/10/26/a-stunning-fall-from-grace-for-a-star-executive/?ref=global-home
for original article
=============


"Fall from grace" is an interesting way to describe this. This is the natural consequence of a corporate culture in the world, which has no moral compass and rewards the most irresponsible, high-risk, and even illegal actions. Remember that the high-end business schools in the US refused to sign a pledge to include moral and socially responsible elements in their curriculums. And Goldman Sachs is the world champion in this irresponsible, and now illegal, behavior.
It is frightening to think that over the past several US administrations, executives from this corrupt Goldman Sachs environment have been put in charge of the financial affairs of the US and indeed the world...
Small wonder that the world is teetering on the edge of financial and economic self-destruction.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Comment on: "How to Fix the Wireless Market",

see
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/26/opinion/how-to-fix-the-wireless-market.html
for original NYT Op-Ed


This is an interesting example, even if somewhat innocuous, of government regulations versus the self-regulating, self-optimizing gobbledegook of free-market enthusiasts.
In the \"perfect world\" of the GOP, the government would have allowed the merger between AT&T and T-Mobile and they would ignore the predatory practices of the wireless industry, under the assumption that everyone is making \"rational choices\" with \"perfect knowledge\" and that therefore government intervention is not necessary. The net effect would again be that more wealth and power flows to the 1% and the 99% get screwed.
Now translate this to some really important issues, such as health care, where the free-market (speak the health insurance and pharma industries) are robbing the public blind, for health care results that are among the worst in the industrialized (and even third world) countries, and you start to see the ridiculousness of the GOP position: Free-market capitalism, left to its own devices, serves only to concentrate wealth and power in the hands of a very small oligarchy.
There will always be a tug-of-war between the role and power of government and the role of \"free-markets\" - given the pace of change, technological and economic, this will always require a balancing act. But given the evidence of the last 30-40 years, where the role of government has been continually cut back and the power of corporations given ever more scope and freedom, which has resulted in the current economic world-calamity, i think the dogmatic GOP positions of \"get government off our backs\" is demonstrably a complete failure.

Critique of "Euro, Meant to Unite Europe, Seems to Rend It", by STEVEN ERLANGER

My disappointment with the type of reporting (or are these opinion pieces?) produced by Steven Erlanger caused me to write a comprehensive critique of one of his recent pieces -- see below.

If Mr. Erlanger is supposed to do "reporting", then I'm disappointed in the NYT for providing such obviously one sided, biased reporting, and in the NYT fact-checkers for not catching some of the more obvious inaccuracies.

If he is considered on opinion-writer, then a regular contributor with a more balance view on Europe would be good for the NYT.



Here is my critique, embedded in the original article:


============================================================



Euro, Meant to Unite Europe, Seems to Rend It
PARIS — The euro was a political project meant to unite Europe after the Soviet collapse in a sphere of collective prosperity that would lead to greater federalism. Instead, the euro seems to be pulling Europe apart.
The Euro was not primarily a political project, but a monetary and economic project built on top of (portions of) an already existing political union. Although initially conceived as early as 1969 (even earlier, 1929, if you include the early proposals by Gustav Streseman) as part of the discussions of the formation of the European Union, the current Euro was defined by the Maastricht Treaty in 1992. Its goals were primarily monetary (avoid fluctuations among European currencies) and economic (foster trade, free flow of capital among EU members).
As European leaders scramble to present a united front for this weekend’s critical meeting in Brussels, anxiety in Europe is growing, and not just about the euro. The assumptions of 60 years suddenly seem hollow, and the road ahead is unclear, as if the GPS system has gone out of whack.
Lumping the current difficulties with the Euro, which many economists predicted early on, with a dismissal of the goals and assumptions of the European Union ("The assumptions of 60 years suddenly seem hollow") is intellectually unbelievably shallow. As Mr. Erlanger himself goes on to say in the next paragraph, "[o]n the surface, the European Union is an enormous success" - what does "on the surface" mean? The "success" is not real and tangible?
On the surface, the European Union is an enormous success. It has nearly 500 million citizens and a gross domestic product of more than $17 trillion, larger than that of the United States and more than three times China’s or Japan’s. It is America’s largest trading partner by far, and together the two economies account for roughly half the world’s gross domestic product and nearly a third of its trade.
But Europe is in economic and demographic decline as Asia is rising. The European Union’s share of global trade is steadily dropping, especially in exports. Its aging population is placing huge strains on generous social welfare and pension programs and pumping up sovereign debt in an extended period of flat growth.
The economic decline of Europe relative to Asia is relative, as opposed to absolute (whereas the economic decline of the US is absolute, given the decline in income, wealth, education, health care and many other measures among the ever shrinking middle class). The demographic decline is absolute and is shared by most advanced industrial nations. However, just as the declining and aging populations of advanced economies represent a liability for the near- and mid-term, the exploding populations of developing countries, like China and India, represent a time-bomb of potential and real youth unemployment and runaway expectations, which may very well prove to much for these countries to manage.
Technologically, it is behind the United States, but its pay scales are too high to be an easily competitive exporter.
This is a fascinatingly incorrect statement: According to 2010 WTO data, Germany alone within the EU exported almost as much as the US, so if you include all 27 EU countries, the EU exports a lot more than the US. Thus, the EU's technology and its cost structures (including pay scales) must certainly be competitive.
It is such an accepted conventional wisdom that the US is technologically so far advanced, that journalists like Mr. Erlanger seem to repeat it almost like a mantra, without really thinking about it. There is of course some technological innovation which the US excels at - just look at Apple and Google and any number of high-tech companies. But in other technologies, which may matter more for an economy's long term health and survival, the picture is often starkly different. In renewable energy the US is falling behind; in the technology and state of repair of its infrastructure the US is woefully out of step with most EU countries.
The current crisis over the euro has deep roots in the imbalances between north and south, rich and poor, export-led and service-driven economies, tied together by a currency but few rules, and those are rarely enforced.
This is the area where all seem to agree on what the failings of the Euro are, and the fact that the rules, such as they were/are, were routinely broken by even the largest of the EU economies (Germany and France) and that some countries, like Greece, were admitted in spite of common knowledge that they did not meet the criteria, has come back to haunt the Euro.
A fix will require fundamental changes in the functioning of the bloc, with more interference in the workings of sovereign states. There would need to be a fiscal union, with a treasury and a finance minister capable of intervening in national budgets, and more unified tax and pension policies. But it is far from clear that the European Union can gather itself to take these fateful steps away from nationalist identities to a truly European model.
This too is accepted within most countries of the Euro region, and work is actively progressing, if parallel to the admittedly somewhat disjointed efforts to avoid an immediate meltdown, in the direction of a long term solution which will require individual countries to give up additional sovereignty in fiscal and social service matters.
“We are today confronted by the greatest challenge our union has known in its entire history,” said José Manuel Barroso, the head of the European Commission. “It is a financial, economic and social crisis. But also a crisis of confidence — in our leadership, in Europe itself, in our capacity to find solutions.”
There are many who believe that the European Union and its leaders have already been found wanting, and that the European project that brought democracy and peace to the Continent may begin to unravel.
True enough, but this kind of statement is a well-worn journalistic ploy to give "weight" to ones own prejudices. Of course I can find people who predict the demise of the Euro and even the EU (see for example Paul Krugman's column of Oct. 23), but I could make the same statement about the US being in terminal economic and democratic decline -- "There are many who believe …", etc, etc.
What struck me, though, in a recent discussion among members of most political parties on German TV, is how strong and coherent the support for the Euro and the EU is among all these players - with a few notable exceptions, of course. On the super-national front - if you take out Slovakia, where the opposition was more a reflection of internal politicking - support for the Euro and EU is similarly strong. It is of course true, as Mr. Erlanger points out below, that the necessary changes, involving giving up additional sovereignty, will require popular votes in the member nations, and the politicians' mettle will be tested in generating that popular support.
“This crisis is threatening the benefits of 60 years of European integration,” said Nicolas Baverez, a French economist and historian. “All the principles on which the euro zone was built — no state default, no monetary transfers, no bailouts and strict limits on debt — all these principles are dead, and we have no rules to make this work.”
Worse, he said, political leaders underestimate the dangers. “This is not just another recession, but a real and fundamental crisis,” he said. “There is a tension in the political system and doubt about democratic institutions that we have not experienced since the fall of the Soviet Union.”
Built from the ruins of war and expanded generously in the euphoria after the Soviet collapse, the European Union heralded itself as a model, radiating “soft power.” But now the model looks tarnished and flawed.
To paraphrase Mark Twain, the news of the demise of the European Union is premature. Mr. Erlanger seems to equate problems with the Euro with the demise of the EU. Yes, the political process to save the Euro is messy, and yes, the steps needed to stabilize the Euro against future fluctuations in the fortunes of individual member states are complex and will require skill and leadership from Europe's political leaders. However, if one compares the quality of leadership in Europe with the Keystone Cops performance in the American Congress, I would give the EU a better chance of survival than the US.
Leaders seem diminished; local politics trump solidarity. There is a new nationalism degrading the collective responsibility and shared sovereignty that defines the European Union. Euro-skepticism runs from far-right parties that simultaneously detest immigrants, globalism and Brussels to the governing parties of Europe’s most successful countries.
I assume Mr. Erlanger means that "Leaders seem diminished" in the eyes of their electorates, which is probably true. But journalists, in the eyes of the public, are even more "diminished" than politicians, and this kind of "reporting" by Mr. Erlanger does not help.
A European Union of 15 nations seemed coherent and manageable; the Europe of 27, soon to be 28, is almost ungovernable, even by a professional bureaucracy with little connection to voters and whose decisions cause increasing resentment, summarized in the “democratic deficit” that the European Union suffers.
The historical ironies are considerable.
Germany, for example, divided and in ruins after the war it fought to dominate Europe, is reunited and dominating Europe now, but without arms and with deep reluctance.
Nothing gets done in the European Union without German agreement, commitment and money. But in Chancellor Angela Merkel, Germany has a leader who is reactive and uninspiring, while her coalition partners, the Free Democrats, are slumping into irrelevance. Her eye is on Germany’s internal politics, its loose federalism and coalition government, a major contrast to France’s centralized, nearly monarchical state.
France once dominated the European Union, but Paris has now fallen behind booming Germany, one reason that François Mitterrand feared German reunification. Anxious about its own debt, banks and credit rating in the midst of a nasty presidential campaign, France is having a hard time dragging Berlin along.
At the same time, the countries of Eastern Europe are more vibrant economically than many of their western partners. They share much of the German, Dutch and Finnish view about strict fiscal discipline, and are reluctant to join a shaky euro and become responsible for the failures of others.
Britain, always an outlier in the European Union, looks wise to reject the euro, and the mood now is probably more anti-European than even in the days of Margaret Thatcher.
The fundamental changes needed to cope with the euro crisis — particularly the historic step of creating a common treasury — would require a redrawing of the basic treaties, which would require the approval of the voters.
But Europe is unpopular, a local metaphor for globalization, faceless and interfering. It is by no means certain that the voters are ready to leap into a new world of economic integration. Even if they prove to be, the new treaty will be complex and take years to draft even before being put to the electorate for ratification, if there is ratification.
This is a nice summary of the leadership roles of France and Germany, the fact that they have very different traditions and approaches to government, and the energy of the new members in Eastern Europe. But in terms of the current crisis, that is nothing new. The criticism of Germany's "reluctance to lead" has been self-evident from the start and was and is a requirement to assuage the understandable mistrust of Germany's strength, especially after reunification. As a matter of fact, there are regular tirades in the British press, even today, of how Germany has now conquered Europe, not with guns, but with its economic power.
The press's criticism of Merkel as "reactive and uninspiring" and their call for charismatic leaders is completely serf-serving - they tend to sell more papers. But just look at our own charismatic leader, President Obama, who was swept into power by a wave of adulation, especially from the press. He has turned out to be a very ineffectual leader.
It is easy to say that the answer is “more Europe,” not less. That can seem self-evident to Eurocrats and the political elite. But “more Europe” may not be what voters want.
“The only thing that can save the euro in its current form can’t and shouldn’t be done without democratic debate and support,” said Simon Tilford, chief economist for the Center for European Reform, a research institution.
“You need to bring the electorate with you,” he said. Of course, he acknowledged, a real democratic debate “could exacerbate the crisis.” That may be the largest historical irony of all.
Here Mr. Erlanger hits the nail on the head (for a change), even if this is nothing new: the needs to improve and adapt the EU and the Euro are evident to most leaders and politicians, but it is very difficult to sell these ideas to the individual national electorates. Thus the principals of popular democratic governance for changing the various treaties underlying the EU and the Euro will prove to be the biggest obstacles. But that has bee the story of the EU and the Euro from the start - it has been a development lead by some very dedicated visionaries and leaders, who managed to drag the general population along, sometimes willing, more often kicking and screaming.
Mr. Erlanger obviously belongs to the host of EU/Euro doom-sayers (interestingly, most of these come from Anglo-American media and economists -- such as Paul Krugman). Having lived and worked in Europe both before and after the formation of the EU and the introduction of the Euro, I am still impressed by the benefits both have brought to this continent. My hope rests with the young people of Europe, who - based on my subjective, non-scientific impression - are overwhelmingly and completely committed to both the EU and the Euro, not necessarily because they intellectually agree with it (although that too), but because it is the only Europe they have known, and their lives would be dramatically constrained without the freedoms of movement it has allowed them.
==============

Addition: Oct. 27, 2011:
Here a comment from a German reader of Mr. Erlanger's article today on the latest deal to "solve" the Euro crisis - I could not say it better myself...




Germany
October 26th, 2011
4:28 pm
As a european, I am often surprised about the comments about the EU in common and the Euro in special. Since I was never in the US, i am always reluctant to comment on special US issues, for example weapons, rockstars posing as gangsters or pimps, or a party which members think that the earth is flat and only 8000 years old. Since am I not a member of the huge mass of commenters, which holding a PhD in macroeconomics, I am also careful about comments to your Pope Paul K.
So I give only some remarks from a european view.
The EU is a project far from perfect, holding together totally different nations and languages. But at the end we like it.
Today the german Bundestag vote for a support of the EU on a bill auf all partys, exept the comunists. The US senat and house of represantives can not come together on a bill to support your own nation, even you have only two partys in charge.
Even the Slowenen voted for a support, dispite they have a smaller GdP then Greece.
The keyword here is solidarity.
The other keyword abandonment. Most europeans can live with a little bit less, when they can have peace therefore.


Comment on: "The Fighter Fallacy", by David Brooks

see
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/25/opinion/brooks-the-fighter-fallacy.html?_r=1&ref=global-home
for the Brooks opinion piece.


I have read a lot of lame arguments from Mr. Brooks in favor of the Republicans -- even though he often espouses positions which are diametrically opposed to the harsh stands of the GOP.
Government, which the people don't trust, is not just the President and the executive, it includes Congress, and especially the House. Poll after poll shows that the public distrusts the Congress even more than the President.
Candidate Obama did indeed run as the \"Great Compromiser\", promising to get things done in a bi-partisan way. This ran right smack into the Republican dogma of \"the highest priority is to make Obama fail\" -- and to hell with the needs of the American people. Nothing has changed in the attitude of the GOP. To suggest now that Obama should campaign for second term on what you call the \"Grand Bargain\" is completely ludicrous.
I will go out on a limb and predict that Obama will win reelection, especially if he takes the \"hard line\" and uses the campaign to point out the intransigence of the Republicans. The GOP is the protector of the privileges of the 1% against the needs of the 99%. The notion that taxing those making over $1 million more in line with historical averages will hurt job creation is ludicrous. And, most importantly, the GOP candidates currently vying for the nomination are, with one exception, keystone cops. Romney is perhaps the most qualified, but he has changed positions so often to satisfy the GOP base, that no one really knows where he stands.

Friday, October 21, 2011

Comment on: "Party of Pollution" by Paul Krugman

see http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/opinion/party-of-pollution.html for original article.
Traveling in Europe currently and speaking with many people in France and Germany, it is embarrassing, to say the least, to have the topic come up of the completely clueless and witless cast of Republican presidential candidates.
There is a lot of contentious, and sometimes irrational, debate going on in Europe about the EURO crisis, but at least one has the impression that European politicians and commentators are focused on the real issues, rather than competing with each other on how to pander to the most ignorant, uninformed, and intolerant among us -- to get wild applause for a statement that the poor and unemployed are at fault for their predicament is just one of the more obscene signs, as is the wild applause about the number of executions in Texas.
Republicans make much of the benefits of having former CEOs become president -- but even aside the demonstrably reckless, irrational, if not criminal behavior displayed by the managers in some of our largest corporations (which has led the country to the edge of disaster), corporations are not led in a democratic manner, much more like a dictatorship, and these CEO's will be completely clueless on how to deal with a Congress to get anything done.

Commet on: "Who You Are" by David Brooks

See
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/opinion/brooks-who-you-are.html
for original article by David Brooks.


Very interesting stuff -- just another indication how much economics (also a social science) is stuck in an old rut by continuing to pursue a \"theory\" of economic behavior which assumes all (economic) decisions are rational and \"advantage-maximizing\"..
These completely false basic assumptions are leading our economic and political decision makers to make bad decisions, which are in the process of making the US an economic and political basket case.
European versions of free-market, with much more "social conscience" components, at least takes account of the fact that if you continue to believe in the fictitious rational consumer, and the supposed self-stabilization and resource optimization, it will only serve to concentrate wealth and political power in the hands a few, the most ruthless among us... It is indeed the 99% versus the 1%..

Monday, October 17, 2011

Comment on: "Good news! No Really" by Bill Keller

See
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/17/opinion/keller-good-news-no-really.html
for article...


I'm not sure why the modern American news media always seem to feel they need to feed us a \"feel good story\", usually at the end of the network newscasts -- it is time we Americans faced the disaster we have created for ourselves.
And the \"good news\" Mr Keller quotes is really scraping the bottom of the barrel, if we have to go to Liberia and Somalia for \"good\" news.
It would be more useful if the Editor of an influential source such as the NYT took an honest and forthright look at the problems and potential solutions we have in the US, and took a non-weasel-out stand on the current \"debate\" in Congress about how to correct the deficit-lack-of-jobs-deteriorating-infrastructure-etc-etc situation which our money-lobby-special-interest driven political system has gotten us into...
\"Fair and Balanced Journalism\" does not mean that you just let each side spout its gobble-de-gook, it means checking what is true, factual and makes sense, and then having the courage to say so....

Sunday, October 16, 2011

Comment on: "America’s ‘Primal Scream’" by Nicholas Kristof

See
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/16/opinion/sunday/kristof-americas-primal-scream.html?hp
for the original opinion piece by Kristof.
=================================
This is an excellent piece in that it is one of the few instances, news or opinion piece, which has correctly described the odd dichotomy of many Americans - they recognize and empathize when citizens in other countries are oppressed (such as during the \"Arab Spring\"), but (for the most part) they allow themselves to be taken in by the Republican dogma that asking for a more equal distribution of economic and political power in the US is somehow \"class warfare\".
The critique of the 99% vs 1% distribution is absolutely on target: wealth = power in the US form of democracy. And this unequal distribution will ultimately lead to the death of American democracy unless we as a people find the means and the will to reverse the trend of ever more concentration of wealth and power within a smaller and smaller oligarchy.
This deadly trend of concentrating wealth and power in the top 1% started with Reagan and accelerated to unbelievable proportions during the Bush (W) administration. This was the real "class warfare" and it successfully decimated, if not outright killed, the broad American middle class. The Republican intransigence against any form of of tax increases for the top 1% in order to reverse this deadly concentration of wealth and power is the stranglehold which will choke the life out of American democracy.

Saturday, October 15, 2011

Comment on: "Health Law to Be Revised by Ending a Program"

See
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/15/health/policy/15health.html
for original article.


Health care, and health care insurance in the US is a joke, and unfortunately President Obama does not understand (or is not willing to admit) that without mandatory coverage, including a single payer plan (for which those with money could add additional private coverage) is needed to make anything work, including long-term health coverage.
By now the statistics about the fact the the US has the highest per-capita expenditures for health care, which gets it somewhere between rank 30 and 40 in terms go \"health care outcomes\" (depending on which measured you choose) should be well known.
In addition, the much ballyhooed \"free-enterprise\" model for healthcare favored by Republicans (at the behest of the health \"industry\" lobbies - just like when they passed Medicare Part D, the biggest give-away in the history of health care legislation) only allows corporate greed to enrich themselves on the backs of the suffering, ill, and elderly -- just like the recent news stories about the \"scarce drugs\", where our wonderful corporate leaders horde scarce but vital drugs in order to jack up the prices by insane margins, apparently up to 600% and more.
While not perfect, the US could do with some advice from other advanced/industrialized countries, ALL of which have national health care plans, and NONE of which allow the disgrace of some 45 million citizens to go without even minimal health care...

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Comment on: "Something’s Happening Here" by Thomas Friedman

See
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/12/opinion/theres-something-happening-here.html?_r=1&hp
for original article by Thomas Friedman


I vote for Paul Gilding's \"The Great Disruption\" as closer to \"the truth\". Economics and economists have led us to believe that free market capitalism, with its supposed self-correction and optimum resource allocation mechanisms, is the cure-all. However, in order to come up with this \"theory\" of economics and their wonderful economic models, they have had to \"externalize\" and/or abstract almost everything from the real world. They (economists) postulate perfect and complete knowledge when players in the free-market economy, from individuals choosing a new car, to corporations deciding on a new product, make their decisions. That is, of course, complete bunk. For example, marketing/Madison Avenue spends billions to mis-inform us about products and services, using sophisticated psychological techniques, combined with outright lies, to ensure that we do NOT have complete information, and that we do NOT make rational choices. And how complete was the information of financial institutions in defining the real estate based junk products, and how rational were their decision in betting everything on these products, which no one really understood?
Free market capitalism has shown its lethal flaws (ignoring, for example, the environmental impacts, and the social/human impacts, because it cannot be \"priced\"). I do not pretend to know how to fix this, but something will have to radically modify, or even replace, free market capitalism if the world is to survive.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Comment on: "The Milquetoast Radicals" by David Brooks

See
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/11/opinion/the-milquetoast-radicals.html?_r=1&ref=global-home
for the original Brooks column.


Mr. Brooks, it is indeed a 99% vs 1% problem. All the valid policy imperatives you enumerate (\"Do tax reform, fiscal reform, education reform and political reform so that when the economy finally does recover the prosperity is deep, broad and strong\") to get the country out of the doldrums are exactly the steps being blocked by a GOP which has been completely hijacked by a minority of radical conservatives whose only policy goal is the \"ensure that Obama fails\" (as opposed to ensuring that the country succeeds).
The 1% are in possession of the vast majority of wealth, and thus, given the PAC and Lobby-driven nature of the US political system, hold virtually all economic and political power.
The Occupy Wall Street protests are an expression of frustration with the government and the 1% power-elite which controls it, not much different from the Tea Party before it was hijacked by conservative PACs.
Our current political problems are indeed like \"declaring war on some nefarious elite\", just like the American Revolution declaring war on the nefarious British Crown, with actions like the original Boston Tea Party...

Monday, October 10, 2011

Comment on: "Panic of the Plutocrats", by Paul Krugman

For the original piece by Paul Krugman, see
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/10/opinion/panic-of-the-plutocrats.html


I am surprised by Mr. Krugman's apparent surprise...
Plutocrats and/or Oligarchs always react with panic, and when pushed to the wall, with extreme ruthlessness to any perceived or actual threat to their status and privilege.
Judging by some of the disproportionate reactions from the NYPD to the protesters, the moneyed powers obviously want to crush this in the bud - let's remember that the New York mayor is named Bloomberg, and although I often admire his sometimes liberal policies, he is definitely a member of the Oligarchy.

Sunday, October 9, 2011

Comment on: "Where Have You Gone, Joe DiMaggio?

For original Freedman column, see
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/09/opinion/sunday/friedman-where-have-you-gone-joe-dimaggio.html?_r=1&hp


While I agree with Mr. Friedman's oft stated view:
"To do that, we need to reinvigorate our traditional formula for success — quality education and infrastructure, open immigration, the right rules to incentivize risk-taking and government-financed scientific research",
his assertion that Steve Jobs embodies the kind of leadership qualities we need in politics, however, is ludicrous. There is nothing "democratic" (small d) about successful corporate leaders. They are more akin to dictators, and we want to be careful about a populous longing for a "strong man" or dictator to get us out of our current troubles. It is exactly the fact that Americans, different from most other countries during the last Great Depression, did not succumb to the temptation to turn to a dictator to lead them out of their miseries, which makes America different. All right, I'll grant you that FDR had many of the qualities of a "strong man" leader, some on the Right would even say, a dictator. But we as Americans did manage to keep things within the framework of a democratic government and society.
I agree that leaders like Steve Jobs are important in a free-market, entrepreneurial society, but let's make sure we keep the boundaries between good corporate leadership (generally un-democratic) and good public leadership, clearly defined.

Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Review of: "Aftershock: The next Economy and America's Future", by Robert B. Reich



On balance, this book proved to be a huge disappointment.

I approached Mr. Reich's latest book with great anticipation. After all, he is a political economist and legal scholar with some renown, he has served in government as Secretary of Labor and he is a liberal progressive with ideas that I generally agree with -- yes, I admit to a liberal bias.

In Part 1, "The Broken Bargain" he describes the parallels between the Great Depression (1929) and the "Great Recession", as he calls the financial meltdown of 2008, in that previous to both events the concentration of income and wealth had been concentrated in the top 1%, peaking in both cases above 23% of income. His heroes, Mr. Marriner Eccles, head of the Federal Reserve Board during Roosevelt, and John Maynard Keynes, are used to argue his main points - that for the economy to remain healthy and grow, a large, prosperous and confident middle class is needed in order to purchase and consume the products and services produced by a free market economy, and that the government must protect the middle class against the natural tendency of free-market capitalism to concentrate wealth in a small oligarchy. Moreover, when there is a downturn in the cyclic economy, the government must step in to boost investment,  spending, as well as direct support of the middle class so as to maintain their purchasing power to reinvigorate the economy.
He calls this balance between the rich and the middle class"The Bargain".

Although I fully agree with these notions, Mr. Reich, an academic economist, does not deal at all with the current thinking that Keynesian economic theory has been invalidated by the fact that it cannot explain the simultaneous inflation and unemployment of the 1970's (see, for example, "How the Economy Works", by Roger E.A. Farmer). As a non-economist, I don't really care, because all of the so called "economic theories" and "models" are simplistic hot air balloons in my mind, but I would have at least expected some mention of this from Prof. Reich. 

Prof. Reich also glosses over the colliery to Keynesian policy proscriptions, that during economic prosperity the government needs to save and repay the "loans" it took out to intervene on behalf of the middle class. The author is very one-sided in his praise of unionization and protection of workers without addressing the excesses of union rules, which brought some industries down, and the effects of the global markets vis-a-vis national employment protection, which allows corporations to freely move jobs to the cheapest markets.

In Part 2, "Backlash", Mr. Reich succumbs to what seems to be the fashion de-jour of these kinds of books, and paints a rather silly Armageddon scenario of the extreme way in which the increasing income inequality, and the consequent political inequality and frustration, could resolve itself - the fictional election of 2020. Although I agree that increasing concentration of wealth and political power in the hands of a small oligarchy, as we are again witnessing today (just as before the Great Depression), can and often does lead to frustration and political extremism and paranoia (for example, the Tea Party), I have much more faith in the American electorate than Mr. Reich seems to have. Having immigrated from Germany, one of the characteristics of the American electorate is their ultimate common sense in rejecting some of the extremes which other countries have chosen in response to great economic hardships. Although when interviewed individually, American voters often seem frighteningly ignorant, as a group they did not choose Fascism or Communism when push came to shove.

The real letdown of this book, however, is Part 3, "The Bargain Restored", where I expected a well thought out set of policies and suggested steps, based on academically sound reasoning and real-world political experience, on how to move this country out of its current disastrous economic decline and political gridlock, back to an America of equality, prosperity, hope and optimism.

Instead we get a warmed over "New Deal" (much of which I would agree with as broad objectives), but without any sensible or realistic steps to implement them. Basically Prof. Reich counts on increasing poverty and frustration on the part of a beaten down and disenfranchised middle class (that is, the same forces underlying his Armageddon scenario) to be recognized and appreciated by a suddenly enlightened economic oligarchy and political elite, which will then miraculously implement the proposed new New Deal policies.

There is no attempt to deal with all the multitude of differences in the world we live in today as opposed to the world in which his heroes, Eccles and Keynes, made their observations and proposed their solutions. We live in a "global economy" where corporations know no national boundaries, but where the rules are set by national governments with very limited control over the flow of capital, resources and jobs. We live in a world where "consumption" is the be-all-end-all. We live in a world where our technological know-how has far outstripped out moral, legal and emotional ability to deal with all its positive and negative ramifications. Although Prof. Reich pays lip service to some of these issues, it is as if his economic and political thinking is confined to a bubble of New Deal thinking.



Sunday, July 31, 2011

Review of: "The Day After the Dollar Crashes", by Damon Vickers.

This book is fascinating, not so much for what the title promises (that, it turns out, seems almost incidental), but more for the seeming multiple personality disorder of the author, where a different "personality" seems to be in charge in each chapter.

In Chapter 1 the emphasis is on a "liberation" and 'free trade" world view, mixed with a generous sprinkling of "environmentalist"/Green warnings. All the well known and well worn statistics are rolled out about the huge national debt, the trade imbalance, and environmental ravages brought on by heedless pursuit of growth and consumption, and the dependence on entitlement programs. He states that GDP is not an appropriate measure for the wealth and health of a country and its economy (agreed) but then states that "The only real gauge of our worth is what we export".

Towards the end of this chapter he seems to be vying with Glenn Beck for the honor of "confused crazy", perhaps hoping for a seat at the table of television punditry.

Chapter 2 his Dr. Phil/Suze Orman/Glenn Beck personality mix takes full flight and the book takes a turn to the "How to Heal Thyself" genre, admittedly a good source of income, if you can develop a following - perhaps Oprah will sign him on to OWN. This chapter is full of platitudes and conflicting advice. He goes on an on about how US workers cannot hope to compete internationally, but does not offer any solutions (except perhaps accepting the incomes and lack of social services of third world countries). He ends this chapter out in left field with an admonition to reduce our prison population -- they get a free ride, shelter, food, medical care - still not quite sure how this fits into the New World Order.

In Chapter 3 Mr. Vickers seems to want to go back to the Silver Standard: "According to the 1792 Coinage Act, one single US dollar bill equals 0.77344 ounces of silver. That was sound money". I'm not an economists or finance expert, but that seems to be a dead horse since Nixon repudiated the ability to redeem gold for Dollars in 1971. In this regard Mr. Vickers is again aligning himself with some of the libertarian crazies.

He also states in the same section that "If you look at the period between 1800 and 1941, inflation did not exist while the currency was sound". That seems to be a completely false statement if you look at any of a number of historical inflation data sets. For example:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_Historical_Inflation.svg shows that inflation in 1920 peaked at over 20%.

Mr. Vickers has an amazing capacity for forceful arguments on both sides of an issue without seeming to realize that he is contradicting himself. He argues that jobs are leaving the US because American workers are too bloated and selfish and will not accept that demanding a living wage, some healthcare and old age pension will cause their jobs to leave forever. He offers the same old tired free-market arguments to demonstrate that this is inevitable and that "government regulations never work".

In the very next section he thunders against the unethical corporations, which act "against the common good in exchange for profits to the shareholders". He gets on his little soapbox and calls for "a social uprising that hits these conglomerates and this club of economic elites in the pocketbook". Then he goes on to "pray that the New world Order…includes powerful and enforceable policies to prevent this kind of financial pressure" which allow the corporate excesses.

So on the one hand he argues that "government regulations never work" but then calls for a "New World Order [which] includes powerful and enforceable policies". Mr Vickers seems to have separate compartments in his brain which don't communicate with each other.

Then Mr. Vickers morphs back into his Buddhist personality (the third personality of his multi-personality disorder?) with statements like "people saw clearly that we are one world, one ocean, one atmosphere… and acted with a new awareness that every living thing on earth was connected". This from the same man who only a few paragraphs earlier has berated the self-indulgent American worker for wanting a living wage and not acknowledging the wonders of free-market capitalism and its self-regulating, resource optimizing truths.

Mr. Vickers seems to keep gyrating back and forth between his libertarian self, where the government is nothing but a money grubbing, inefficient, self-serving, unaccountable menace to We the People, his Green/Buddhist self, where he bemoans the unsustainable, consumer-oriented, environment-destroying economic system of the West, and the corporate and political elite which control it to their own advantage, and the somewhat insane "New World Order" proponent, where, through some miraculous turn of events, all the ills of the current separate governments and corporate entities are morphed into a benevolent and all-knowing global governing entity which brings us into Nirvana.

Sprinkled into this melange are some real zingers - I'll quote just one:

"We Westernized citizens spend 80 percent of our time working for profit, thinking that someday we will evan enough money to allow us time to fish and garden [apparently his idyll]. In comparison, the third world citizen spends 80 percent of his time fishing and gardening [when he is not busy being slave labor for us]".

In Chapter 4, having not yet defined what the New World Order is, except vague references to some form of benevolent world government, which has miraculously managed to solve all the numerous problems he has enumerated, he turns to thermodynamic theory (entropy) to "prove" that a collapse of our current systems is inevitable. And like the tension between the Old and New Testaments, Mr. Vickers goes into "preacher mode" and pats us on the head and tells us not to be afraid of the "new order", for it is inevitable/ordained, and will lead us to Nirvana.

This religious fervor is mixed with some good old fashioned right-wing big-bad-government rhetoric (nationalizing various industries, stealing money through taxes, forcing through wasteful healthcare, etc). And this whole bizarre discussion ends with another zinger:

"We must realize that we infect the atmosphere with our thoughts. We create exactly what we think about. That may sound like some simplistic, new-thought mumbo-jumbo, but your belief is not required for this to be true. It is the law of the universe and no amount of resistance will change it. It is simply the way it is".

Yes, Your Vickers Holiness, we bow to your superior insights!

Chapter 5 is odd, in that it makes a lot of suggestions, again a confused mixture of libertarian, environmentalist, new-age and plain-old revolutionary, which we should follow, whether to avoid the cataclysmic collapse or to prepare for the New World Order afterwards - not clear which.

The Federal Reserve is lambasted, we are exhorted to "vote on character, not by party", we are told to go back to a self-sustaining agricultural society (after having previously been told that only exports count!), and to shift our consciousness to Oneness, and finally, to "take it to the street".

As if the previous chapters were not confusing and weird enough, Chapter 6 goes into a completely different direction. Here Mr. Vickers seems to be "pitching" a disaster movie script to Hollywood by giving a minute by minute account of the cataclysmic events, as only he is privy to, leading to the New World Order. 

Tellingly, at the end of this chapter Mr. Vickers morphs back into his investment advisor personality with this piece of advise (could be right out of his firm's brochure): 

"We embrace bull and bear markets equally, seeking to profit from what the market gives us, just as we did in both the 2000-2003 and the 2007-2008 market collapses".  So people, not to worry, the world as we know it will collapse, governments and institutions will be swept away, but Mr. Vickers' investment advisors will survive and stand ready to help you profit.

So perhaps the movie Mr. Vickers is pitching is a combination of "War of the Worlds" and "Wall Street".

Enough said, this is complete BS.

In the remaining chapters Mr. Vickers brings down the tablets from the mountain and tells us how the "Central Government" of the "New World Order" should/will function. The image that jumps to my mind when reading this, was the scene from the original "The Wizard of Oz" when we finally see "The Wizard" behind the curtain, flashing lights, smoke and pulling levers.

Although these chapters, as indeed the whole book, contain nuggets of interesting, admirable, and worthwhile (but certainly nothing new) ideas, Mr. Vickers' presentation of this wild melange of conflicting, often completely unproven ideas and scenarios is just too schizophrenic to be taken seriously.

If one were serious about investigating the possibility of, and the path to, a New World Order, one could, for example, study the origins and evolution of the European Union and the Euro, from the cataclysm of two World Wars, to the humble beginnings of the "Montanunion" (Coal and Steel free trade), to the Rome Treaty creating the European Union, all the way to the creation of the common currency and the difficulties that has spawned.

The schizophrenic, confused, self-serving and pitifully incoherent book by Mr. Vickers, in my view, does more harm than good in charting a course into the future.

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Review of: "DEMONIC: How the Liberal Mob is Endangering America" by Ann Coulter.

The existence of "mob mentality" and "group psychology", as described by Gustave LeBon and studied by sociologists and psychologists since then, is a fact. As Ms. Coulter points out, we can see it in action in history (French Revolution, Russian Revolution, Nazi Germany, on both sides of the Civil Rights movement and the Vietnam War protests) and on and on the list goes. Mobs are not only evident in large national and historic events; they are just as evident, for example, in school bullying and gang rapes. 

Mob mentality is evident in all forms of political activity, be they on the left or the right or in between. With the developments in modern media, from radio to TV, and now the internet and social media, it is no longer necessary to actually physically gather together a "crowd", but mobs can be incited, controlled and directed from far away and over lengthy periods of time. This combination of modern mass media technology (both "technology" in the strict sense, as well as the methodology of mass persuasion perfected by the advertising industry), together with the virtually unconstrained American interpretation of "free speech", is indeed a very real danger to the survival of civil and democratic societies.

If Ms. Coulter had chosen to present a balanced description and analysis of mass psychology and mob mentality in American political life in history and today, and the very real danger it presents to civil society and meaningful democracy, then this might indeed have been a worthwhile read. However, her demonic obsession with turning this discussion into a one-sided political harangue makes this book into exactly what she accuses "liberals" of - an effort to incite marginally informed masses into a mob movement against any thought or action which does not conform to her rather myopic view of "correct" political views. With this book Ms. Coulter has become exactly what she decries - the Joseph Goebbels of the extreme right-wing.

Even reading the dust cover, it struck me as odd that Ms. Coulter was at pains to describe the French Revolution as liberal and mob-controlled (which undoubtably it was in some aspects), of which the Democrats are supposedly direct "heirs", while "Republicans, heirs to the American Revolution, have regularly stood for peaceable order". Right there is the first instance of Ms. Coulter's use of mob psychology for her own purposes, by wrapping Republicans in the American flag, and associating the Democrats with a foreign flag, culture and mentality - a text-book exercise in inciting mob hysteria.

By the way, Ms. Coulter might be interested in reading "A Note on Mobs in the American Revolution" by Gordon S. Wood, assuming she is open to reading something which might disturb her myopic world view.

For every instance Ms. Coulter cites where liberals, Democrats, progressives (or whatever label she wishes to attach to those she accuses of destroying America) use tools of mob psychology, there are equivalents used by conservatives and Republicans. Take slogans. Ms. Coulter states that "Conservatives don't cotton to slogans", and then goes on to list many of the whoppers coined by liberals and Democrats. But what about "Death Panels" and "taxing the job creators" to name just two. 

Ms. Coulter accuses liberal mobs of "foisting faddish ideas … on the rest of us … which would never have occurred to anyone fifty years ago"; I guess civil rights is a faddish idea in her view.

The negative term "mob" is quickly equivalenced with Democrats (a classic ploy of mob psychology to establish automatic negative associations with your "enemies"), as in "The Mob's Compulsion to Create Messiahs". But hold on, Ronald Reagan has been elevated to a demigod by conservatives, with "supply-side economics" or trickle-down the equivalent of the holy grail.

Overall, Ms. Coulter is obviously a gifted and effective propagandist. I can easily imagine "Demonic" being prominently displayed on the coffee tables of the true believers, as some of the other propaganda masterpieces, "Mein Kampf",  "Das Kapital", and Mao's Little Red Book, are still proudly displayed in other quarters. 

Monday, July 4, 2011

"Dignity is at the Heart of our Declaration of Independence"

Commentary on:
"Dignity is at the Heart of our Declaration of Independence"
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/07/02/dignity-is-at-heart-our-declaration-independence/

The Declaration and Constitution are indeed inspiring documents. It is, however, one of the tragedies of America and Americans in recent years that we interpret events in other countries as if they too have come through the same European intellectual, social and political experience as we have, and that therefore events like the "Arab Spring" signify the same desire for "dignity" and "democracy" which the American Revolution signified (even that may be over-romanticized).
This skewed world view has led America into the mis-adventures of "nation-building" in Afghanistan, Iraq, and now Libya. Try to think of it in terms of the French, who helped the American revolutionaries, if they had come in with the same "overwhelming force" of "shock and awe" to build a nation in the Americas in their own image. Would that have been appreciated by American colonials? Would they have turned against the French?
And remember, that the French, just like the Americans now, did not come to help for altruistic reasons - they had their own agenda in a centuries-long struggle with the British for colonial dominance.
So let's try and keep both feet on the ground when we "analyze" events such as the Arab Spring, and remember that the spark which ignited these protests were not a search for "dignity" or "democracy", but a protest against high food prices. And let's try and remember that the "American way of life", as much as most of us may like it, is not what everybody in the world wants or needs.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

President Obama's Afghanistan Troop Reduction: A Tragedy and a Farce.

Below, interspersed into the actual text of President Obama's speech, is my analysis and my response.
This may seem very arrogant on my part (to critique the President's speech). However, I was deeply incensed and insulted by the patronizing, self-serving tone, and the ridiculous arguments presented in this speech.

========================

Good evening. Nearly 10 years ago, America suffered the worst attack on our shores since Pearl Harbor. This mass murder was planned by Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaida network in Afghanistan, and signaled a new threat to our security — one in which the targets were no longer soldiers on a battlefield, but innocent men, women and children going about their daily lives.
In the days that followed, our nation was united as we struck at al-Qaida and routed the Taliban in Afghanistan. Then, our focus shifted. A second war was launched in Iraq, and we spent enormous blood and treasure to support a new government there. By the time I took office, the war in Afghanistan had entered its seventh year. But al-Qaida's leaders had escaped into Pakistan and were plotting new attacks, while the Taliban had regrouped and gone on the offensive. Without a new strategy and decisive action, our military commanders warned that we could face a resurgent al-Qaida, and a Taliban taking over large parts of Afghanistan.

No matter how long we stay, no matter how many more lives are lost and people maimed, in the end the Taliban will regain a major role in Afghanistan. al-Qaida is probably no longer significant but other forms of Muslim extremism will emerge. Thus. all additional casualties and all additional money spent will be a complete waste.

For this reason, in one of the most difficult decisions that I've made as president, I ordered an additional 30,000 American troops into Afghanistan. When I announced this surge at West Point, we set clear objectives: to refocus on al-Qaida; reverse the Taliban's momentum; and train Afghan security forces to defend their own country. I also made it clear that our commitment would not be open-ended, and that we would begin to drawdown our forces this July.

The successes against al-Qaida, as in killing bin Laden and other leaders, is completely separate from the military operations in Afghanistan.
The Taliban's momentum (whatever that means) has not been reversed -
this is their home; they will just sit back and wait until the US leaves.
The Afghan security forces will continue to be a joke and no match for the fanatical education of the Taliban, no matter how long we train them and how much we pay them.

Tonight, I can tell you that we are fulfilling that commitment. Thanks to our men and women in uniform, our civilian personnel, and our many coalition partners, we are meeting our goals. As a result, starting next month, we will be able to remove 10,000 of our troops from Afghanistan by the end of this year, and we will bring home a total of 33,000 troops by next summer, fully recovering the surge I announced at West Point. After this initial reduction, our troops will continue coming home at a steady pace as Afghan security forces move into the lead. Our mission will change from combat to support. By 2014, this process of transition will be complete, and the Afghan people will be responsible for their own security.

All additional casualties between now and 2014 (if indeed that date holds) will be completely in vain, and the President and military leaders who advocate for this delay in removing all our troops will have to live with these unnecessary and senseless casualties on their consciences.

We are starting this drawdown from a position of strength. Al-Qaida is under more pressure than at any time since 9/11. Together with the Pakistanis, we have taken out more than half of al-Qaida's leadership. And thanks to our intelligence professionals and Special Forces, we killed Osama bin Laden, the only leader that al-Qaida had ever known. This was a victory for all who have served since 9/11. One soldier summed it up well. "The message," he said, "is we don't forget. You will be held accountable, no matter how long it takes."

These types of actions against al-Qaida, if necessary, can be continued without a single US soldier in Afghanistan or Iraq.

The information that we recovered from bin Laden's compound shows al-Qaida under enormous strain. Bin Laden expressed concern that al-Qaida has been unable to effectively replace senior terrorists that have been killed, and that al-Qaida has failed in its effort to portray America as a nation at war with Islam — thereby draining more widespread support. Al-Qaida remains dangerous, and we must be vigilant against attacks. But we have put al-Qaida on a path to defeat, and we will not relent until the job is done.

Again, nothing to do with retaining troops in Afghanistan.

In Afghanistan, we've inflicted serious losses on the Taliban and taken a number of its strongholds. Along with our surge, our allies also increased their commitments, which helped stabilize more of the country. Afghan security forces have grown by over 100,000 troops, and in some provinces and municipalities we have already begun to transition responsibility for security to the Afghan people. In the face of violence and intimidation, Afghans are fighting and dying for their country, establishing local police forces, opening markets and schools, creating new opportunities for women and girls, and trying to turn the page on decades of war.

I predict with virtual certainty that, no matter when the US finally leaves Afghanistan, the Taliban will return in full force, and quite possible topple the hapless buck we leave in charge as the "government".

Of course, huge challenges remain. This is the beginning — but not the end — of our effort to wind down this war. We will have to do the hard work of keeping the gains that we have made, while we drawdown our forces and transition responsibility for security to the Afghan government. And next May, in Chicago, we will host a summit with our NATO allies and partners to shape the next phase of this transition.
We do know that peace cannot come to a land that has known so much war without a political settlement. So as we strengthen the Afghan government and security forces, America will join initiatives that reconcile the Afghan people, including the Taliban. Our position on these talks is clear: They must be led by the Afghan government, and those who want to be a part of a peaceful Afghanistan must break from al-Qaida, abandon violence and abide by the Afghan Constitution. But, in part because of our military effort, we have reason to believe that progress can be made.

This observation is "politically correct" but ignores thousands of years of historical experience. This part of the world has never been "pacified" into a nation-state; it has always, and will for the foreseeable future be dominated by tribal rule, which we do not understand. America, in its simple-minded foreign policy, still believes that it has the one and only correct answer to how countries should be governed. America barely knows how to govern itself, let alone telling other societies how to do it.

The goal that we seek is achievable, and can be expressed simply: no safe-haven from which al-Qaida or its affiliates can launch attacks against our homeland, or our allies. We will not try to make Afghanistan a perfect place. We will not police its streets or patrol its mountains indefinitely. That is the responsibility of the Afghan government, which must step up its ability to protect its people; and move from an economy shaped by war to one that can sustain a lasting peace. What we can do, and will do, is build a partnership with the Afghan people that endures — one that ensures that we will be able to continue targeting terrorists and supporting a sovereign Afghan government.

Here we go again! Another definition of "achievable goals" for Afghanistan. 
Complete fantasy.

Of course, our efforts must also address terrorist safe-havens in Pakistan. No country is more endangered by the presence of violent extremists, which is why we will continue to press Pakistan to expand its participation in securing a more peaceful future for this war-torn region. We will work with the Pakistani government to root out the cancer of violent extremism, and we will insist that it keep its commitments. For there should be no doubt that so long as I am president, the United States will never tolerate a safe-haven for those who aim to kill us: They cannot elude us, nor escape the justice they deserve.

If we think we need to, and if we are arrogant enough to feel we have the right to, we can continue the anti-terrorist activity in this region without any soldiers on the ground. I would argue that the death of Osama bin-Laden was not at all aided by US troops in Afghanistan.

My fellow Americans, this has been a difficult decade for our country. We have learned anew the profound cost of war — a cost that has been paid by the nearly 4,500 Americans who have given their lives in Iraq, and the over 1,500 who have done so in Afghanistan — men and women who will not live to enjoy the freedom that they defended. Thousands more have been wounded. Some have lost limbs on the field of battle, and others still battle the demons that have followed them home.

An now, with your inability to LEAD, more will die and be maimed fo no good purpose whatsoever.

Yet tonight, we take comfort in knowing that the tide of war is receding. Fewer of our sons and daughters are serving in harm's way. We have ended our combat mission in Iraq, with 100,000 American troops already out of that country. And even as there will be dark days ahead in Afghanistan, the light of a secure peace can be seen in the distance. These long wars will come to a responsible end.

What is a "responsible end" to this war? As I have stated above, Afghanistan will NOT be a stab country after we leave (whenever that is), forget about being a "democracy". The goals stated above will not be achieved!

As they do, we must learn their lessons. Already this decade of war has caused many to question the nature of America's engagement around the world. Some would have America retreat from our responsibility as an anchor of global security, and embrace an isolation that ignores the very real threats that we face. Others would have America overextend ourselves, confronting every evil that can be found abroad.
We must chart a more centered course. Like generations before, we must embrace America's singular role in the course of human events. But we must be as pragmatic as we are passionate; as strategic as we are resolute. When threatened, we must respond with force — but when that force can be targeted, we need not deploy large armies overseas. When innocents are being slaughtered and global security endangered, we don't have to choose between standing idly by or acting on our own. Instead, we must rally international action, which we are doing in Libya, where we do not have a single soldier on the ground but are supporting allies in protecting the Libyan people and giving them the chance to determine their destiny.

What is the threat to the US from Afghanistan (or Iraq and Libya, for that matter)? The events of 9/11 could and should have been prevented is our "intelligence" operations had indeed been intelligent, rather than being characterized by petty turf-wars and incompetent leadership ("slam-dunk").
A recurrence of 9/11 will not be averted by maintaining large US military presence in countries such as Afghanistan. 
A believable argument can be made that the massive military reaction to 9/11 was nothing more than a smoke screen to hid the complete failure of our intelligence agencies.
And let's get real about "America's singular role in the course of human events" -- one could make an argument that this was true through the end of WW II and the demise of the Soviet Union. However since then, the US, as the only super-power left, has been singularly inept in using its power to bring about a better more peaceful world.
And in terms of how America is handling its own democracy, and its "standing" in comparison to other "advanced" nations, it is a pretty dismal picture. 
See Death of Democracy in America  | http://www.amazon.com/dp/B0053T3OJ2

In all that we do, we must remember that what sets America apart is not solely our power — it is the principles upon which our union was founded. We are a nation that brings our enemies to justice while adhering to the rule of law, and respecting the rights of all our citizens. We protect our own freedom and prosperity by extending it to others. We stand not for empire but for self-determination. That is why we have a stake in the democratic aspirations that are now washing across the Arab World. We will support those revolutions with fidelity to our ideals, with the power of our example, and with an unwavering belief that all human beings deserve to live with freedom and dignity.

This is a disgustingly disingenuous statement and an insult to any intelligent person. Bombing Libya, it seems, is "fidelity to our ideals, with the power of our example, and with an unwavering belief that all human beings deserve to live with freedom and dignity".
If we were serious about this, then we would NOT use military power in Libya, but instead invest these monies in those place (like Egypt and Tunisia) which have a reasonable chance of making meaningful changes.

Above all, we are a nation whose strength abroad has been anchored in opportunity for our citizens at home. Over the last decade, we have spent a trillion dollars on war, at a time of rising debt and hard economic times. Now, we must invest in America's greatest resource — our people. We must unleash innovation that creates new jobs and industry, while living within our means. We must rebuild our infrastructure and find new and clean sources of energy. And most of all, after a decade of passionate debate, we must recapture the common purpose that we shared at the beginning of this time of war. For our nation draws strength from our differences, and when our union is strong no hill is too steep and no horizon is beyond our reach.
America, it is time to focus on nation building here at home.
In this effort, we draw inspiration from our fellow Americans who have sacrificed so much on our behalf. To our troops, our veterans and their families, I speak for all Americans when I say that we will keep our sacred trust with you, and provide you with the care, and benefits, and opportunity that you deserve.

This too is a bold-faced lie. Veterans are left to their own devices to rot on the streets. Only the high-tech, media-effective medical interventions of those "lucky" enough to have had their legs blown off get some initial treatment. But even they, once their PR effectiveness has been exhausted, are left to fight the VA for follow-up treatment. And those poor should, who come home psychically and emotionally destroyed, get virtually no help. I run across Vietnam era veterans every day on the streets of our cities, begging for handouts, and trying to survive off the garbage in the alleys.

I met some of those patriotic Americans at Fort Campbell. A while back, I spoke to the 101st Airborne that has fought to turn the tide in Afghanistan, and to the team that took out Osama bin Laden. Standing in front of a model of bin Laden's compound, the Navy SEAL who led that effort paid tribute to those who had been lost — brothers and sisters in arms whose names are now written on bases where our troops stand guard overseas, and on headstones in quiet corners of our country where their memory will never be forgotten. This officer — like so many others I have met with on bases, in Baghdad and Bagram, at Walter Reed and Bethesda Naval Hospital — spoke with humility about how his unit worked together as one — depending on each other, and trusting one another, as a family might do in a time of peril.
That's a lesson worth remembering — that we are all a part of one American family. Though we have known disagreement and division, we are bound together by the creed that is written into our founding documents, and a conviction that the United States of America is a country that can achieve whatever it sets out to accomplish. Now, let us finish the work at hand. Let us responsibly end these wars, and reclaim the American Dream that is at the center of our story. With confidence in our cause; with faith in our fellow citizens; and with hope in our hearts, let us go about the work of extending the promise of America — for this generation, and the next.
May God bless our troops. And may God bless the United States of America.

Just wonderful! Even on this solemn and hugely important issue, we're in political campaign mode again.